As we begin down the backstretch of the 2015 season we can start to see how the off season will play out for the Big 12 coaches. Here is a list from most likely to unlikely to be back with their team in 2016.
It is absolutely 100% assured that David Beaty will not get fired and 99.9999999999999% that no better offers will entice him to leave.
0% chance of not returning in 2016
After a very shaky start to Charlie Strong’s second season the ship seems to have been righted and there is a measured optimism in the Longhorn state for the first time in quite a while. 3 weeks ago Strong would have found himself lower on this list but there is now a 99% chance Strong won’t get fired and almost a 100% chance he won’t get a better offer, aka the NFL, because how many better offers could there be than UT?
0.01% chance of not returning in 2016
Patterson has a 100% chance he won’t get fired. Although there is probably a good chance that he could get better offers if he wanted, he seems happy in Ft. Worth.
2% chance of not returning in 2016
See TCU above, but the only difference I can see is Waco may not be big enough for Art Briles. Still, if Austin wasn’t enticing enough last year, I think it is very remote that he leaves.
3% chance of not returning in 2016
Gundy seems totally safe from firing, but after this year I am sure the rumors of job offers will begin rolling in again. I think he stays, but not quite as confident as the top 4.