Beat the Monkey

Week Twelve

divgreenmonkeylogoLast week was my first losing week of the season, but it sure was a fun one!  With the #2, #3, #4, #8, #9, and #17 teams getting upset, I’m not going to complain at all.   That’s good football viewing.    I did expect this week’s rankings to have more shake ups, but that’s a different article for Friday.   As of now I’m sitting at 105-38 for the season, you beating that?

 

The Big 12

Saturday, November 19th

 

Kansas State at Baylor, ESPN2 12:00pm ET

When it rains it pours in Waco.   There hasn’t been much positive to say about the Baylor football program over the past year and it has only deteriorated this season culminating in Russel breaking his leg last week.  This disarray is the sort of thing the Purple Wizard feeds off of and the Wildcats are always disciplined.   Look for them to steal one on the road to become bowl eligible.

Kansas State 31 – Baylor 30

 

#11 Oklahoma State at TCU, FS1 12:00pm ET

I’m not sure if there is a tougher game to call in the Big 12 this week than this one.   Ok, maybe OU/WVU, but remember what we’re talking about here.   Oklahoma State has had some seriously freakish breaks, like beating Tech to a missed extra point to having Central Michigan win the game after it ended on a freak play.   Add to that that TCU has lost way too often at home by playing inconsistent.   All the numbers in me say that the Frogs are going to upset the Cowboys if for no other reason than to crush whatever is left of the Big 12’s playoff hopes, but the opposite will likely happen.   Whatever you do, don’t bet on this game, especially with TCU giving points.

#11 Oklahoma State 44 – TCU 42

 

Texas at Kansas, ABC 3:30pm ET

Seriously.  At the moment this game is on ABC.   Maybe they thought it was a basketball game?  Well, no matter where it ends up Texas becomes bowl eligible by about 6pm eastern.

Texas 45 – Kansas 24

 

Texas Tech at Iowa State, FS1 3:30pm ET

Vegas opened this game with Tech as a three point favorite.   Three.   As in a field goal.   The over is 75 and Tech is going to win by three? This with Tech having the highest rated passing offense in the land and Iowa State refusing to stop a receiver all year. There are going to be a lot of offensive records made in Ames if Vegas is right.

Texas Tech 52 – Iowa State 38

 

#9 Oklahoma at #14 West Virginia, ABC 8:00pm ET

This is a big game.   Perhaps the biggest game this year for the Big 12, unless Oklahoma and Oklahoma State win out until Bedlam.  The Committee loves Oklahoma because their offense is amazing and they’ve won seven in a row.   The Mountaineers, however, are home dogs with the 19th ranked scoring defense in the land.  They’re also the ranked 19th in total offense, while the Sooners have the 81st ranked defense in the land, giving up 427 yards per game.  I think it’s time the Mountaineers finally showed everyone why the Big 12 took them.

#14 West Virginia 45 – #9 Oklahoma 42

 

Other Games that Matter

Thursday, November 17th

#5 Louisville at Houston, ESPN 8:00pm ET

The Cardinals come into this game touting the image that they are world beaters.   That was crafted by destroying a severely over rated Florida State team and taking a Clemson team to the wire who seems to take everyone to the wire.  They barely beat Virginia on the road and were down 12-10 to Wake in the fourth quarter.   Houston may not be as dominate as we thought after beating Oklahoma, but they haven’t lost at home and have a better defense than Clemson.   They could be primed to play up to their competition and pull the upset.

Houston 33 – #5 Louisville 31

 

Saturday, November 19th

 

Michigan State at #2 Ohio State, ESPN 12:00pm ET

Ohio State has been waxing people by double digits lately and they are a 22 point favorite in Vegas.   The way Sparty has been playing, I’d take the Buckeyes and give the points.

#2 Ohio State 63 – Michigan State 12

 

#23 Florida at #16 LSU, SECN 1:00pm ET

That’s how bad it’s gotten for the SEC this year.   When everyone sucks so much that Florida and LSU are playing each other on the SEC Network.  Bad news.

#16 LSU 20 – #23 Florida 15

 

Indiana at #3 Michigan, ESPN 3:30pm ET

Ok, I still think Michigan has the talent to win this game, but Indiana isn’t a bad team, while Michigan’s starting quarterback broke his collarbone verses Iowa.  Having the Wolverines spotting 24 tells me to take Indiana and the points.

#3 Michigan 31 – Indiana 24

 

#24 Stanford at Cal, PacN 5:30pm ET

Here’s another game that figured to be a Tier One game at the beginning of the year and has been relegated to the worthless pile by November.   Stanford has been sneaky lately though, improving to seven wins and getting a ranking from the Committee.   That’s the perfect time for Cal to drop 40 on them, because Stanford cannot score to save its life, and remind the Pac 12 why they can’t have nice things.

Cal 42 – #24 Stanford 24

 

Missouri at #19 Tennessee, CBS 3:30pm ET

I picked this one this week only to showcase what kind of crap CBS was forced to air this week to make sure everyone got one game on the big leagues.   My guess is this is the lowest rated CBS game of the season, which makes Vandy happy.  Outside that, who cares who wins this game, both teams are just terrible.

#19 Tennessee 12 – Missouri 10

 

#4 Clemson at Wake Forest, ESPN 7:00pm ET

After losing last week, but being saved by the Committee, this feels like a trap game for Clemson.   Wake isn’t great, but they aren’t bad.   And they have some fire in their belly claiming Louisville planned for plays they’d practiced, but never run.   Knowing Clemson, this will be close.

#4 Clemson 24 – Wake Forest 21

 

 

Interested in some really good games this week?   Pick from this selection of SEC gems:

 

University of Texas San Antonio at #25 Texas A&M

Chattanooga vs #1 Alabama

Alabama A&M vs #15 Auburn

 

The SEC sure does know how to schedule late in the season.

 

 

If you have any questions or would like some numbers discussed, contact The Number Monkey via “Ask the Monkey” in our forum, on Twitter @TheNumberMonkey or by email [email protected].

 

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