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Georgia and TCU meet up in Memphis for what would normally be a Sugar Bowl matchup considering how well each has done over the past several years.   This year, however, that’s not the case.  Combined they barely have a .500 record against FBS teams .

libertybowl-1Using advanced statistics from Football Outsiders to try and normalize how each team played against good opponents in quality situations we get a glimpse of what may occur in this game.   Georgia has the better record and a better record against Power Five teams, but neither of these teams has been burning up the charts with their performance.

Offensively, Georgia holds the edge in overall efficiency, but TCU has performed better in attaining the most available yards in their games, achieving more first down opportunities, and succeeded in scoring touchdowns at a greater clip than Georgia.

On the other side of the ball the teams split the metrics pretty evenly.  TCU has the overall advantage with their defense being ranked 20th in efficiency.  Georgia, however, was stouter on both defending available yards and causing their opponents to be less successful in first down opportunities.

None of these stats may matter though, because what they don’t show is just how inconsistent both teams have been this year.   TCU has had its worst defense in years, giving away many long drives at the end of games and the offense has been hit or miss.  Georgia has been anemic on offense and unimpressive on defense.    The Bulldogs have the statistical edge, but this game will come down to who shows up to play.   And, in that regard, I’m putting my faith in the Patterson’s track record with the Frogs.

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