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Last Updated: February 23, 2026 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
After initially opening at No. 7 in the preseason AP Top 25, Michigan sports a 25–2 record and has emerged as the favorite in the latest March Madness and college basketball odds.
As the regular season heats up in late February, here’s an updated look at the National Championship odds.
March Madness odds
| Team |  |
Movement |
|---|---|---|
 Michigan |
+375 | ▼ |
 Duke |
+450 | ▲ |
 Arizona |
+475 | ▲ |
 Houston |
+750 | ▲ |
 Illinois |
+1100 | ▲ |
 Florida |
+1100 | ▲ |
 Iowa State |
+1400 | ▲ |
 UConn |
+1800 | ▼ |
 Purdue |
+2500 | ▼ |
 Kansas |
+2800 | ▼ |
Odds as of 2-23-2026.
Michigan (+375)
Michigan had been blowing through the competition until falling short in a neutral-site matchup against Duke, losing 68–63.
Prior to that setback, the Wolverines’ only hiccup came in January against Wisconsin, and Yaxel Lendeborg & Co. responded to that loss by rattling off 11 straight wins.
Duke (+450)
The Blue Devils have moved from +700 to +450 over the past week thanks to a four-game win streak that includes a narrow home victory over Michigan.
That win has resulted in the Blue Devils boasting the No. 1 ranking in the latest AP Top 25, though Jon Scheyer’s team still faces tough matchups against Virginia and North Carolina to close out the regular season.
Arizona (+475)
The Wildcats were at the top of the odds board and undefeated before suffering back-to-back losses to No. 9 Kansas and No. 16 Texas Tech, but a weekend win over No. 2 Houston allowed them to reshape the narrative.
Arizona hasn't made it past the Sweet Sixteen in more than a decade, and this roster may be as well-positioned as any to finally get over the hump.
March Madness betting splits
Highest ticket percentage:
• Michigan 12.7%
• Duke 8.7%
• Arizona 6.9%
Highesthandle percentage:
• Houston 13.7%
• Michigan 13.4%
• Arizona 12.3%
All data courtesy of BetMGM.
2026 March Madness futures bets
| Bet | Odds | Bet Date | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| National Title: Michigan Wolverines | +450 | February 11 | 0.5 |
| Final Four: Kansas | +350 | February 11 | 0.5 |
| To Make NCAA Tournament Field of 68: USC | -105 | February 11 | 0.5 |
The Michigan Wolverines are atop nearly every rating system. Considering their size, experience, depth, and a 5-0 record against ranked opponents, I'm backing them to win the title.
With a healthy Darryn Peterson, the Kansas Jayhawks have looked like a title contender, and getting them at nearly 4:1 to make the Final Four would be a steal if he's at full strength by tourney time.
The Big Ten is looking like a 10-bid conference, and the 18-6 USC Trojans would likely slot into the final spot if the season ended today. They've won three in a row, and five-star freshman Alijah Arenas is finally hitting his stride after making his college debut in late January.
March Madness 2026 Bracketology & Seed Projections
Tracking the latest movement for the Top 16 seeds.
Projected No. 1 Seeds
-
UConn (+1800) (South)
-
Michigan (+375) (Midwest)
-
Duke (+450) (East)
-
Arizona (+475) (West)
On the Bubble: Last Four In
- Santa Clara (+50000)
- New Mexico (+50000)
- TCU (+40000)
- California (+50000)
Be on the lookout for the 23-6 Santa Clara Broncos, who trail only Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference standings.
Meanwhile, the Mountain West’s New Mexico Lobos have won three straight, leaving San Diego State reeling after two costly losses in February.
March Madness 2026 schedule
| Event | Date | Location(s) |
|---|---|---|
| Selection Sunday | March 15 | — |
| First Four | March 17-18 | UD Arena (Dayton, Ohio) |
| First Round | March 19-20 | Various |
| Second Round | March 21-22 | Various |
| Sweet 16 | March 26-27 | Toyota Center (Houston, Texas); SAP Center (San Jose, Calif.); United Center (Chicago, Ill.); Capital One Arena (Washington, D.C.) |
| Elite Eight | March 28-29 | Toyota Center (Houston, Texas); SAP Center (San Jose, Calif.); United Center (Chicago, Ill.); Capital One Arena (Washington, D.C.) |
| Final Four | April 4 | Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Ind.) |
| National Championship Game | April 6 | Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, Ind.) |
Popular March Madness markets
2026 March Madness opening odds
- Houston +900
- Duke +1000
- UConn +1400
- Louisville +1700
- Auburn +1800
- Florida +1900
- Purdue +1900
- Kansas +2000
- Kentucky +2000
- Arkansas +2000
- BYU +2000
- Alabama +2000
- Michigan +2500
- Texas Tech +2500
- St. John's +2500
- Gonzaga +3000
- Michigan State +3000
- Iowa State +3000
- Arizona +4000
- UCLA +4000
- North Carolina +4000
- Illinois +6000
- Vanderbilt +15000
- Iowa +15000
- Nebraska +20000
Past March Madness winners
(Opening odds courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Champion | Opening odds | Runner-Up |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | Florida |
+8000 | Houston |
| 2024 | Connecticut |
+1100 | Purdue |
| 2023 | Connecticut |
+1600 |  San Diego State |
| 2022 | Kansas |
+2000 |  North Carolina |
| 2021 |  Baylor |
+800 |  Gonzaga |
| 2020 | No tournament (COVID-19) | N/A | N/A |
| 2019 |  Virginia |
+1800 |  Texas Tech |
| 2018 |  Villanova |
+1200 | Michigan |
| 2017 | North Carolina |
+2400 | Gonzaga |
| 2016 | Villanova |
+2000 | North Carolina |
| 2015 | Duke |
+1000 |  Wisconsin |
March Madness trends
• Of the 20 teams that have entered the tournament with undefeated records, only seven have gone on to win the national championship.
• Only 13 teams successfully defended their national championship the following season.
• UCLA has the most NCAA titles of all time (11), although the Bruins have not won the tournament since 1995.
• A No. 1-seeded team has won the national championship 59.6% of the time since regional seeding was introduced in 1979.
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